AI-Enhanced Project Estimating, Monitoring, and Forecasting – D’Mello
Abstract:
Starting with a quick review of commonly-used project estimating, monitoring, and forecasting tools and techniques, this presentation will proceed to discuss their limitations, and then assess the potential and promise that AI techniques bring to transcending these limitations. Agile as well as traditional contexts will be addressed.
Existing techniques like parametric estimation, PERT, EVA, Monte Carlo simulation, etc., which are commonly used for one or more of project estimating, monitoring, and forecasting, are based on assumptions that often clash with the reality of the project’s inherent characteristics, the nature of a project’s work, organizational ways of working, the ambient culture and organizational environment, etc. Examples will be provided to illustrate how these clashes can lower the utility and practical value of these techniques and, in some cases, even render them devoid of practical significance – to the point that relying on them could potentially prove detrimental to a project. These same examples will then be leveraged to illustrate how various AI techniques can be used to enhance the practical value of existing techniques.
A broad spectrum of AI approaches and tools will be presented for consideration, such as supervised and unsupervised/semi-supervised learning (including generative AI). Regression, classification, and clustering techniques will be assessed and potential uses of neural networks will be considered. An example of a neural network applicable to project management will be provided.
The presentation will balance theoretical and practical insights, and address both near-term applications of AI in project management as well as potential longer-term promise.
After attending this presentation, participants will be able to:
- Articulate the limitations of existing estimating, monitoring, and forecasting tools
- Formulate and argue how AI tools/techniques could address many of these limitations
- Understand how to harness AI near term, and to envision its long term potential and promise
PMI Talent Triangle: Business Acumen
PDUs: 0.75
